Wednesday, 22 August 2012
Wednesday, 23 May 2012
Another Free Live Football Trading Webinar
Just a quick note to say that the boys at Trading Football will be hosting a free trading webinar this Saturday lunchtime covering just about everything you ever wanted to know about, wellTrading Football.
This will include a look at the range of services across their sites, a full Q and A session with 3 professional traders where you can ask anything you like about trading, an overview of their new horse racing services with resident pro Robbo and if that wasn’t enough you are welcome to look over their shoulders as they trade a live game that afternoon. And best of all it is free!
Should be a great afternoon with the emphasis very much on discussion, questions and help on all aspects of trading and their trading strategies.
Now that ain't bad for FREE!
Hope to see you there.
For full details of how to join please click the banner below.....
And the boys have very kindly extended their FREE 14 trial of their wonderful service for us too. So before the webinar you can have a good look around the site, pick up some extra strategies and information and even have full access to their trading chat rooms 24/7 including the brilliant new Nags room for those who like some 4 legged trading and tips too.
Come and take a look right here (and then you can get all your questions ready for the webinar)....
Trading Football Trading Diary
Have been getting loads of interest (and great feedback too) regarding the Trading Football free 14 day trial (see here for more details). And rightly so, the boys have been on fire in 2012. On both the football and horse racing front.
To give you a flavor of what you can expect we are delighted to say that we have permission to give you a daily round up of their previous day's trades. This is normally for members-only but we hope it will give you a taster of what these chaps are all about.
Wed 15th Feb RoundupTOTD (trade of the day) which i ran was to Back Brighton for £25 and cover 1-1 £5 and 1-2 £3 as insurance in match odds.Millwall scored early against run of play, so I advised a removal of stakes in CS and after looking at stats was fairly confident of 1-1, advised mebers they had the option to red up for around £10 overall or to wait and see if 1-1 came. Brighton obliged with a goal and we were able to exit MO for small red £3.30 and CS or small green £4.70 so a small profit or scratch overall.Nick ran a clint on Portsmouth v Ipswich, good effort for stepping up ! sadly it went 0-1 early on and the score didnt change so a loss of around £14.Chris put up a AA on Blackpool which was a winner and a SHS on Leeds which was won with a Coventry penalty in the dying minutes. The FULL MONTY!!The SHS is called the Second Half Suggsy. Named after Suggsy, one of our Senior Members. There are two versions, one is to Lay the Draw if the score is 0-0 and goals look likely. (Can also be done on 1-1 if stats/commentary appoint to another goal.) Laying the Draw at odds of 2s for £25, at 1.5 for £25 and 1.25 for £25. (Halve these stakes if they're too high). Last night with the goal in the last kick of the game returned £75 profit! FULL MONTY!The other version is two lays. One at 2.20 for £15 and one at 1.80 for £30.The strike rate of the SHS is around 63%, and good money can be made. It can also be used on an Adster Aperitif if the game is 0-0 at that time. A goal is scored you recoup your stakes on 2-1 and 2-2. Danger? 0-0 FT of course.*Included in depth and free with Betting System Notes!All in all a good nights trading with plenty for the 40 odd members in chat to get stuck into.
Like what you see? Come on take the FREE trial today...
The King Of The Swingers
Swing Trading (or Swing Scalping) is the holy grail of trading on the betting exchange.
Here you are looking to catch bigger movements in the market rather than the small one tick profits more usually associated with the more common scalping technique.
Here is an extract from the latest weekly podcast from Full Time Professional Trader Matt Finnigan over at http://www.proxtrading.co.uk/
Matt describes the art of swing trading and trading within a range, plus why novice traders tend to be inflexible with profits and flexible with stop losses, when it should be the other way round.
You can find more of Matt's podcasts which we feature every week right here at Betting System Notes.
The King Of The Swingers
Swing Trading (or Swing Scalping) is the holy grail of trading on the betting exchange.
Here you are looking to catch bigger movements in the market rather than the small one tick profits more usually associated with the more common scalping technique.
Here is an extract from the latest weekly podcast from Full Time Professional Trader Matt Finnigan over at http://www.proxtrading.co.uk/
Matt describes the art of swing trading and trading within a range, plus why novice traders tend to be inflexible with profits and flexible with stop losses, when it should be the other way round.
You can find more of Matt's podcasts which we feature every week right here at Betting System Notes.
Europa League. We’re ‘aving a Laugh
Wow what a night’s trading that was, 2 trades from our two premier trading sites each giving a minimum of 40% ROI. Loving the Europa League this season.....
I jumped on an Adster Aperitif over in Madrid as flagged up here by our Market Matcher software. Included for free when you join.....
Whilst the trade of the day at Trading Football all panned out beautifully as they led their members through it all the way in their chat room. Well it is what the boys do isn't it!
Here is a summary.....
SPORTING LISBON v ATL BILBAO
Trade: BACK BTTS NO + 2-1/1-2/2-2
Trade: BACK BTTS NO + 2-1/1-2/2-2
Half-time: 0-0.Advised BACK 1-1 @ 9.0 £6
54 mins: 1-0 Advised LAY BTTS NO @ 1.67 £10
76 mins: 1-1 Advised LAY 2-2 @ 8.0 £8
80 mins: 2-1 Advised BACK 3-1 @ 7.4 £7
83 mins: 2-1 Advised BACK 3-1 @ 7.6 £2
Profit: £22....40% ROI
This trade showed the classic use of using one market (BTTS NO) as insurance against the main market (Correct Score)
The stakes were weighted towards the higher scorelines with £135 green on 2-2 to be used as leverage in-play.
The stakes were weighted towards the higher scorelines with £135 green on 2-2 to be used as leverage in-play.
Dangers were either side taking a 2-0 lead by Half Time as uncovered scores like 3-1/1-3/2-3/3-2/3-3/AUQ would need to be dealt with. 1-1 was also a danger which we backed at HT when score was still 0-0.
Once one goal was scored we had the option of reducing the liability on BTTS YES; in this match it was considered a reasonable move given that the away dog scored first and the market assumed the home fav would equalise.
TIP: Always keep in mind the maximum potential profit you have on one market and look to "spend" some of that profit on covering any possible danger scorelines
And don't forget the boys over at Trading Football had continued their fantastic 14 day FREE trial of their fantastic membership service we just had to tell everyone about it.
And just look at what you get for, well, er, nothing!
Oh when The Clint goes marching in……
Yes yet another text book Clint (the strategy with no name) trade on the Southampton v Leicester Monday Night game.
This strategy is on FIRE at the moment, making it 5 from 5 after we had Huddersfield, Bolton, Betis and Man United over the weekend.
Last night was as easy as 1...2...3
1. Set up pre match with the usual staking as defined in the strategy
2. At 0-1 we backed 0-2 and reduced some of out of the over 2.5 goal market
3. At 0-2 we greened up!
2. At 0-1 we backed 0-2 and reduced some of out of the over 2.5 goal market
3. At 0-2 we greened up!
Over 20% ROI for under 30 mins work, marvellous.
So if you want to know more and get up and personal with Clint (along with 12 other proven profitable strategies, free software and loads, loads more), it's all right here for you.
A couple of these types of trades and you have paid for the cost of your lifetime access to the site!
Here's a few screenshots from the lats few days.....
Go on, make my day........
Draw Inflation
Just had this in from Adster over at prematchtrading.com concerning currently very under utilised aspect of Football Trading, Draw Inflation.
Over to you Adster......
We are finding there are more and more games where we can take advantage of via Shirley (our price misalignment software).
These include :
• We're trading the Match Odds so we get matched almost immediately.
• Liquidity is better in Match Odds than any other market.
• Even lesser games we wouldn't normally touch due to lack of £££ we can get involved in and nick a few ££££ allowing more flexibility and trading opportunities aside the big live games.
• Those with less time can jump on these, make their green and move on very quickly.
• Shirley tells us exactly what the draw Inflation is, making this an even more powerful tool.
• Liquidity is better in Match Odds than any other market.
• Even lesser games we wouldn't normally touch due to lack of £££ we can get involved in and nick a few ££££ allowing more flexibility and trading opportunities aside the big live games.
• Those with less time can jump on these, make their green and move on very quickly.
• Shirley tells us exactly what the draw Inflation is, making this an even more powerful tool.
The majority of football models are based on the poisson distribution and so is Shirley - a heavily modified poisson model which allows for teams correlation and leagues specific corrections.
Historically poisson models have been predicting draw outcomes to occur less often and the error has been around 10%, therefrom the draw inflation - inflating/increasing the probability of draws and of course draw scores 0-0/1-1 etc.
Historically poisson models have been predicting draw outcomes to occur less often and the error has been around 10%, therefrom the draw inflation - inflating/increasing the probability of draws and of course draw scores 0-0/1-1 etc.
What is too high/low then?
That's relative, anything between 5-15% is alright but if you see an inflation around or below 0% that would be low, respectively an inflation above 20% would be high, in some Italian B games however draw inflation's have been as high as 200%, those games in which the draw trades around 1.50 at KO 
What to do when we spot a low inflation?
The inflation depends on match odds and total goals so there are a number of scenarios:
• match odds remain the same, u2.5 drifts
• draw steams, dog drifts, u2.5 stays the same
• draw steams, faves drift, u2.5 steams
• draw remains the same, dog drifts, u2.5 drifts
• draw steams, dog drifts, u2.5 stays the same
• draw steams, faves drift, u2.5 steams
• draw remains the same, dog drifts, u2.5 drifts
and quite a few more of these...
A trade that would win in most cases - back the draw and lay the dog, if you could get matched laying/backing at back/lay prices that would be best.
For high inflations - the opposite - lay draw and back dog.
Sunday, 12 February 2012
Rain Cool Pictures
Rain a season a moment when everyone from animals to plants and we humans are overjoyed. The nature's beauty is at its zenith here are some beautiful wallpapers from the rainy season. Charlie Chaplin says about rain. "I always like walking in the rain, so no one can see me crying."
Tears of joy are like the summer rain drops pierced by sunbeams.
Tears of joy are like the summer rain drops pierced by sunbeams.
Wednesday, 8 February 2012
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